To his credit, Kasy is a realist here. He doesn’t presume that any of these proposals will be easy to implement. Or that it will happen overnight, or even in the near future. The troubling question at ...

New bibliometric tool combs through scientific literature, patents, and grants to forecast future impact, but experts disagree about its usefulness ...

What started as a niche corner of the internet has evolved into a multibillion-dollar industry. In 2025, prediction markets have become a substantial instrument for speculation and the forecasting of ...

A new article published in Nature Medicine has shown how a new AI model can be used to predict future disease risk, including several types of heart disease, dementia, kidney disease, and all-cause ...

Apps that let people wager on current events have experienced explosive growth in Trump's second term. But one of the leading ...

Recently, my security team prevented a data breach—not by catching someone stealing data, but by predicting they would attempt it days before they actually tried. It wasn’t luck. We had something more ...